The Feld-Blog

Senator Harry Reid has declared he will oppose Judge Roberts’ confirmation for Chief Justice. Senator Baucus has publicly declared he will vote for confirmation. The motivation for Senator Reid’s declaration is clear, while I must admit I am a little perplexed by Senator Baucus’ public announcement.

In my mind there are three main reasons why Reid might come out against Roberts. 1) He legitimately does not believe that Judge Roberts is qualified, suitable, or a good pick for this position - unlikely since virtually no one contests Roberts’ qualifications or intellectual ability. 2) He fears a Justice-Thomas-like situation where the nominee says nothing during the confirmation process and senators are left confirming someone they don’t know well enough to give their full support. This would be the most substantive reason. If this is the case, then Senator Reid believes he must take his constitutional responsibility of advice and consent very seriously, and feels that he does not have enough information to make an informed decision. This would not be altogether inappropriate considering Roberts and the Bush administration were remarkably tight-lipped about anything having to do with Roberts for the last few months. Finally, 3) as a political strategy, the leading democrat in the senate publicly announces he will oppose Roberts’ confirmation allowing other democrats to follow suit without fear of tremendous repercussions. Roberts will almost definitely still be confirmed, but by a narrower margin, sending this definitive message to the White House: “Roberts just barely snuck through this confirmation, nominate a more conservative judge for O’Connor’s currently more moderate seat, and we will give you trouble.”

Senator Baucus is much more difficult to read (pun most definitely intended). He is not a member of the judiciary committee, and although he is a popular Senator, he is not a member of the official Democratic leadership. As such, it is confounding that he would make a public statement out of a position we all assume most senators, Democrat and Republican alike, will take. Perhaps he is positioning himself for a run at the Oval Office. Grooming oneself as a moderate is usually a clear first step towards advancement in the political realm. Certainly Republican Senators have grown weary of the Democratic filibuster, so positioning himself as pro-Roberts stifles any criticism that he is only obstructionist in the Senate. There has been little to no talk that Baucus is planning to run for president (at least to my knowledge), so, in all honesty, this gratuitous declaration of his position seems almost prideful, as if he thinks it is more significant than it actually is. Perhaps he is merely trying to shore up the Democratic base in the name of bipartisanship, maybe he just truly believes Roberts is right for the job and is excited to say so, but less than 24 hours after the Democratic leader announced his position (and more-or-less by default the Democratic position), Baucus’ statement deals a not insubstantial blow to party unity. It is one thing to stretch out and extend an olive branch across party lines, and another to undermine your own party’s leadership within 24 hours of the leader’s statement.